Bad Science

This has me irritated.  Maybe more than it should... I am really irritated that people still find the need to share as if this was gospel truth.  This article claiming that childhood vaccinations are the cause of not just autism, but pretty much every other horrible thing that can happen to your child, is based on bad science.  Really bad science, in my opinion.

Let me tell you why.

But first, if you are a parent it is YOUR responsibility to make decisions in your child's best interest.  You need to base those decisions on good information from both your pediatrician and your own research.  Be an informed consumer.  If you conclude that vaccines do more good than harm, then get your child vaccinated without guilt and second-guessing yourself.  If you decide to forgo them, that is also fully your right.  I AM NOT OFFERING MEDICAL ADVICE OR EVEN AN OPINION ABOUT WHAT YOU SHOULD CHOOSE TO DO.  That's up to you!  I am only explaining why I believe this article shouldn't be used to inform that choice and, hopefully, giving you some tools to spot bad science when you see it.

First, you're going to have to read the article for yourself. While you are, notice some things that should be red flags any time you are reading an article based on a scientific study.

• There's no link back to the original study just the landing page of the publishing journal.  You should be asking yourself why. We'll get to that in a moment.
• The supporting studies that are, oddly, linked are old.  They are dated 2006 and 2007.  This is 2018.  Ten plus years will most likely have seen the findings in those studies obseleted many times over.  There are a few exceptions but generally, you should base your decisions on research that's not older than five years.
• The author notes that the scientists conducting the study showed correlation.  And she hints that they recognize correlation is not necessarily causation.  Just hints at it with a single weakly worded sentence.  Correlation means they observed a relationship between the variable (vaccines) and a result (an illness).  Causation means they proved that the variable caused a specific result.  This article wants you to believe these scientists proved something they did not.

So... you're feeling some skepticism?  Good!  It's time to look a little deeper.  The lead scientist's name is given and you know the topic.  Google it.  Google knows everything!

Go ahead.  Google "Anthony Mawson vaccine study."  Dig through all those hits.  See where the Journal of Translational Sciences, the publisher of the study's findings, has retracted it?  When a peer-reviewed scientific journal retracts an article, it's a big deal.  That's not a decision they come to lightly.  It's an embarrassment to them so there has to be a very good reason.  Except...  You knew that was coming, didn't you?  The Journal of Translational Sciences isn't a respected scientific journal.  See the OAT at the top?  It stands for Open Access Text.  And if you dig deep enough, you see that oatext.com hosts a vast number of journals that you can pay to publish your study.  They give the reviewers 20% off the top, even.  You've heard the term "pay to play" on the evening news usually in regards to a government contract?  This is what it looks like in medical research.  And even they retracted this study!

If you do find one of the copies of the original study that still shows up now and then (because someone downloaded a PDF copy when it was still available and has posted it somewhere again) and start reading there are more problems.  John Q. Average probably doesn't know what a "cross-sectional sample" is in a scientific study so they may not pick up that what Dr. Mawson goes on to describe after those words is the survey of a "convenience sample."  Convenience samples do not have the same validity because all they can tell you is the opinion of a group of people who choose to answer your survey questions.  Think about who is going to choose to participate in any survey... only people interested in the topic (unless they are paid and there was no compensation involved in this particular survey) and ask yourself if that method provides a true representation of the entire population you are studying, in this case the American general public.  Sometimes it might.  This is called generalization.  Not being generalized is a big technical flaw in a study.  Big.  Huge.

And consider the survey itself.  He selected a bit more than 600 homeschooling mothers in 4 states and asked them if their children were vaccinated (not at all, partially, and fully were the choices) and what health problems those children experienced.  No records review to see if their memory was correct.  No independent assessment of the children's health conditions.  No control group.  Faulty data collection method, poorly constructed survey questions, no substantiation.  There are also several issues with bias ranging from Dr. Mawson's role as an outspoken advocate for the anti-vaccine movement, funding from anti-vaccine groups to do the study, and using the same parents he surveyed to promote and disseminate information from it. Bias is a bad thing in scientific research because it can lead you to swing results to a pre-determined conclusion. If you're cherrypicking for the answer you want, is it really research?

Vaccines are a subject where I have no expertise so I can't offer you an opinion about whether or not they are a good thing.  And that's not the point I'm trying to make anyway.  What I hope you've learned from my dissection of Dr. Mawson's study is how to spot bad science in the future whether it's descriptive journalism in the popular media or seeking out a scientific journal and reading the published study findings.  Good research and the truly awful exist side-by-side and are shared widely and quickly with today's technology.

In a world where everyone sells themselves as an expert, be a skeptic.  Ask questions and read critically.  Use your mind instead of your emotions even when it's an emotional topic.  Make sure you've got good information as the basis for your choice.  Google is your friend - look up words you don't know.  Consider both sides of the argument fairly.

And then...

Make your choice.

(And for goodness sake, when you find bad science DON'T SPREAD THE TRASH FARTHER by posting it on Facebook!)

Groundhog Day

Today we celebrate the weather forecasting abilities of a rodent who should still be slumbering the winter away... Groundhogs usually hibernate until late March.  And we wonder why people in other countries think Americans are weird?

Photo by Fox News on Feb 2, 2018

Our most celebrated groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, saw his shadow on this sunny Pennsylvania morning (or at least it's sunny right now here in Mount Savage on the Maryland/Pennsylvania border) forecasting 6 more weeks of winter.  My first thought was "Ugh! Winter... I hope he's wrong."  Then I started to wonder how often he actually is right.  According to livescience.com, Phil isn't very good at his job.  He's wrong even more than the TV weatherman, the one we curse for being so often wrong, with an accurate prediction of spring weather's arrival just 39% of the time.  That's worse than the 50/50 odds of flipping a coin!

But back to reveling in our oddity... According to legend, if our furry little rodent friend casts a shadow on February 2nd you should expect another 6 weeks of winter weather.  If there's no shadow, then you'll experience spring-like conditions.  Records of his predictions date back to the 1880s when German settlers meshed their Candlemas Day festivities with Native beliefs but it only gained great notoriety following the release of Bill Murray's 1993 comedy movie, Groundhog Day, where he plays a weatherman reliving the day over and over again.  Now thousands of people come from all over the country to this small town in Pennsylvania to gather on Gobbler's Knob and watch as poor Phil is pulled from his warm den to tell us when to expect Spring.  Interestingly, like many of our modern holidays, Groundhog Day is a meshing of ancient Pagan festivities with the beliefs of a local culture which was then Americanized as people left the Motherland in search of safety and/or prosperity.  Candlemas Day has roots in the Pagan holy day of Imbolc which marks the halfway point between the Winter Solstice and Spring Equinox.  Superstition held that if the day was sunny and bright, the second half of winter would be stormy and cold.  For early European Christians, it became customary to celebrate Candlemas Day by having a priest bless candles and distribute them to the community so a lit candle decorated a window of each home as a symbol of light overtaking dark just as the days began to lengthen.  Literally, it was a Candle Mass.  Some of the rhymes to help people remember this have also been saved, too.

In Old English...
If Candlemas be fair and bright,
Winter has another flight.
If Candlemas brings clouds and rain,
Winter will not come again.

And from Scotland...
If Candlemas Day is bright and clear,
There'll be two winters in the year.

Germany...
For as the sun shines on Candlemas Day,
So far will the snow swirl until May.
For as the snow blows on Candlemas Day,
So far will the sun shine before May.

And, the early American twist...
If the sun shines on Groundhog Day;
Half the fuel and half the hay.

People who lived in rural areas not near enough to a church to participate in formal Candlemas Day celebrations marked the day by watching wild animals and whether or not they cast a shadow.  For Germans, it was a badger.  So, after they immigrated to America, the groundhog served as a replacement.  Woodchuck, which is how groundhogs are known locally, comes from the native Deleware word "wojak" and is important to the Tribe's creation beliefs.  According to the Deleware, woodchucks represent their ancestors from the time before they emerged from Mother Earth to live and hunt as humans.  They are descendants of the woodchuck.

And now you know what you're really celebrating... a mashup of weather predictions of Native ancestors on an old German holiday that's based on even older Pagan observances of solstices and equinoxes.

Can you get any more American?

On the Lord's Errand

Since February of 2008, Thomas S. Monson served as Prophet, Seer and Revelator and also in the administrative role of President of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.  He passed away Tuesday night. And while his wit and leadership will be missed, the feeling is happy.  We are happy that he's with his much-loved wife again and imagining the grand reunions with her and other family and friends.  There is surely a celebration in Heaven!

Called to the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles before I was even born, he lived a life of service that is a reminder to me and countless fellow members to think of others in all the situations life throws our way.  We treasured his stories about the lessons life taught him and his living example to seek out 'the one' who needs us most.  We laughed with undying affection when he would wiggle his ears at Conference.  And we all felt a little more confident that all was really going to be alright in this scary world when he told us to take heart.  I met him once.  It was a chance passing on a downtown Salt Lake City sidewalk but he had a sincere greeting and what I remember as the kindest eyes I've ever looked into.  They bespoke pure love and then the corners crinkled up in accompaniment to his smile.  Simple, uneventful... yet, an experience I remember.  I also credit him with my own desire to teach principles by sharing stories. I loved it when he used stories of people he'd known to teach us how to be better people.

Some might wonder what's going to happen to the Church now faced with a change in leadership.  It's actually fairly simple.  We'll celebrate President Monson's life with a beautiful funeral service in the coming days, listen with tears in our eyes as the last rendition of "We Thank Thee O God For a Prophet" is played just for him, and then move forward with the work of spreading the gospel.  Succession is described well on mormonnewsroom.org.  They explain that the First Presidency, the highest ranking administrative body in the Church, is dissolved on the President's death and the Counselors (similar to advisors) resume their place in the seniority of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles, the second-highest presiding body.  The Twelve (now numbering 14 with the Counselors) have the responsibility to oversee the progress and advancement of the Church worldwide under the leadership of the Senior Apostle.

The Senior Apostle calls a meeting of the entire Quorum where they discuss two questions:  Should the First Presidency be reorganized at this time? Or should the Church continue to function under the leadership of the Twelve?  A motion is made and accepted.  If the motion is to reorganize the First Presidency, a President is unanimously chosen and he selects two Counselors.  Tradition, throughout the entire history of the Church, sees the longest-serving Apostle chosen as President.  The second-longest-serving Apostle then becomes President of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles (or third-longest-serving if the second-longest-serving Apostle is chosen as a Counselor).  At the next General Conference, a sustaining vote is taken across the entire membership of the Church where we pledge to support these leaders in doing their work.  Because of this process, we Mormon's are ready and able to move forward immediately.  Russell M. Nelson is currently the longest-serving Apostle and we anticipate welcoming him as the new President sometime in the next few weeks and raising our arm to the square to sustain him at April General Conference.

What I Love About Winter

Accuweather's 10-day forecast for Mount Savage, MD
on Dec 30, 2017

Has your skin turned blue... are you frozen through and through?  Oh, baby, it's cold outside! But I'm trying to stay positive this chilly night before New Year’s Eve and find some things to make winter seem more like an old friend than such an evil intruder throwing a wrench into whatever I have planned.

What I love most about winter:

Sweats are fashionable

Hot cocoa

Crockpots full of simmering soup

Guessing at animal footprints after fresh snowfall

A crackling fire in the fireplace

Fuzzy socks

Little kids stuffed into puffy coats 'til they can barely walk
Snuggly puppies
Electric blanket (or electric mattress pad so it's warm from below)
Ice cold water from the tap
Chicken pot pie
Fluffy bathrobes
Hot spiced cider
Looking at seed catalogs & dreaming of spring gardens
Watching kids sled down a hillside
Colorful birds flitting about in bare tree branches
Lasagna
The way falling snow makes it look like you're inside a snowglobe
Catching snowflakes on your tongue
Steaming bowls of chili
Being covered in the afghan you're crocheting
Daydreaming about a Hawaiian vacation
Dogs with crazy sweaters
Slathering butter on bread right from the oven
Videos of dogs learning to walk in their new booties
Binge watching Hallmark movies
Rolling the "r" when you say brrrrr...
Cute boots (and cute hats and mittens and scarves, too)
All kinds of apple desserts
Fondling the Christmas decorations as  you  put them away


And probably my very favorite... Complaining about the cold!

2017 in Review

As 2018 is about to get itself underway, I find I’m still an accidental resident of Mount Savage, MD.  Accidental in that I never intended to be here and then when I found myself here, it was only supposed to be for a few days. That was just over a year ago.  My neighbors include a couple of giant raccoons, a fearless Momma possum, some rogue deer, and judging from the scratch marks on the deck… a black bear that wants to be a whole lot more friendly than makes me comfortable.  There’s an assortment of dogs and cats and even some humans, too.  I’ve managed to meet a few of them, even some of the people, this past year and one person, Barbara, has transformed from possibly the most negative and prickly woman I’ve ever met into a true and faithful friend.

I’ve only begun to explore my habitat but already found that Mount Savage is one of those historically significant places that no one’s ever really heard about.  Through the convergence of location and natural resource availability, it became a center of industry in the late 1800s and has fame for rolling the steel for the first railroad track ever produced in the United States. It was also a company-owned town for a time when the clay taken from the surrounding mountains produced a uniquely high-quality brick that’s still prized by collectors and those doing period-correct property restorations.  One day I want to find out more and go take some photos of the old brick ovens. I also want to check out the museum now housed in the town’s original one-cell jail built specifically to provide drunks a safe place to sleep it off.

One of the things that kept me from exploring was an accident early in the year where I badly injured my right shoulder. That ‘grounded’ me for several months. With Jack’s efforts as nursemaid, support brace, heating pad, exercise machine, and 24/7 comforter, the breaks and tears and nerve damage of a total dislocation are probably about as healed as they’re ever going to get now and it’s mostly ok.  There are some activities it inhibits, though… Like crocheting and cooking and cutting the dog’s toenails.  Those have become decidedly short-duration undertakings due to the numb fingers they trigger.  I also had to take time off school because I couldn’t get my hand up to the computer keyboard to post in discussions and write all those papers but I’m back at it now and making progress.  A few days ago I had that breakthrough moment where I actually felt competent talking Psychology and that this might be a real viable career choice for my last shot at that sort of stuff.  That was an awesome feeling!

The most exotic place I’ve been this whole year is the County dump.  It’s a unique arrangement here where you have to stop along the way at a specific Payless Drug and buy stickers to put on your trash bags.  They are $1 each and every bag needs one.  If you arrive on site without them, you’ll be ushered the 7-ish miles halfway back to town, or about the same distance on out the road to a different store in another town, to get them.  Just ask me how I know this…

I’m still being a culinary adventurer.  This year’s ‘new to me’ winner foods include quince, Sugar cakes, and Apple Pan Dowdy.  Quince is a fruit that resembles a yellow apple but has a much more perfume-like scent and taste.  I understand (now) that it’s meant to be cooked but when I found some at the grocery store I just bought one to taste and me and the boys ate it raw. I’m intrigued enough to put it in the orchard I’m imagining for my someday place… and Lightning, my resident foodie, found it delicious.  Sugar Cakes are huge, pillowy, cake-like sugar cookies.  Imagine a Lofthouse cookie and a homemade yellow cake had a round pale-faced baby… and you’re sort of close.  They can be frosted when cooled or just sprinkled with a little sugar prior to baking.  Oh, they are yummy! And Apple Pan Dowdy may be my favorite dessert ever.  It is the perfect combination of pie and bread pudding and caramelly baked apples. Where has this been my whole life?  The Sugar Cakes, Apple Pan Dowdy, and several uniquely Pennsylvania Dutch dishes like Slippery Pot Pie and Rivvel Soup are Barbara’s contribution to expanding my gastronomic curiosity.

Gizmo kissed a cat.  And the cat liked it!  Out of all my guys, his herding tendency made me worried about how he’d get on with the cats.  But he loves Crybaby, a yellow-striped tom that’s also part of this motley crew, and Crybaby loves him.  Crybaby actually likes all the boys and works hard to engage them in goofy little games much to his Mommy’s consternation…  Barbara is over-worried one of them is going to pounce “and break his back because they are so big and rough.” Yes, you just heard my eyes roll but I respect her discomfort and regularly call them off.

Plans for 2018 include finishing up the final classes for my BA in Psychology, making my final selection for grad school, and getting things underway for my MA.  My concentration area has been Social Psychology but I’ve enjoyed the Forensics classes so much more that I think that’s where I will focus my graduate work.  My other goals are pretty tightly focused on job and home and community getting adequately situated in all of them.  I also want to get back to taking little adventures and finding delight in the extraordinary details of day-to-day life that exist if I’m purposeful in paying attention to them. And if I can, I hope to sneak in some art and creative writing.  Which brings us to the goal that’s relevant to this blog: When my life isn’t all that interesting, I lose steam.  So… either I’m going to live a blog-worthy life or take the blog down in this coming year.